Strategy: Sell regular near-term short puts for solid performers, use the net credit to make speculative purchases of long calls for big payoff.
Short puts:
Like a row of marching soldiers: progressive tiered short puts for solid companies, 2-4 months out with a strike at 20% below current level. Net credit each position around 1K, net risk: 10-15K
Use 50% of the net income to make long bets on promising companies
Long calls:
Near-the-money long calls, 4-6 months out, invest around 0.5K, for promising companies or based on overall market and sector performance
Sell when call is 1-2 months away, unless it's almost worthless at that point
Do this repeatedly
Friday, October 5, 2012
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Skewed Iron Condor (2) - TOL
The previous trade, in Pictoral form:
This is a 4-leg trade:
The profit & loss picture looks like this:
This is a 4-leg trade:
The profit & loss picture looks like this:
Skewed Iron Condor - TOL
TOL:
Curve-fitting: goes up by 2/mo
Long Mar 2013 38 Call Ask: 2.90 x 1
Short Dec 31-21 Put credit: 0.70 x 3
Short Dec 32-22 Put credit: 0.90 x 3
Short Dec 47-42 Call credit: 0.40 x 2
Short Dec 46-41 Call credit: 0.55 x 2
Short Dec 42 Call credit: 0.55
2.10 + 0.80 - 2.90 = 0.0
2.10 + 0.55 - 2.90 = - 0.25
Mar 2013 38 Call / Sell Dec 2012 42 Call debit: -2.35
39-44 debit: -2.30
38-41 debit: -2.15
39-42 debit: -1.95
Total position:
Buy Mar 2013 38 Call / Sell Dec 2012 42 Call: -2.35 x 2
Sell Dec 2012 31-21 Put Credit: 0.70 x 3 = 2.10 x 2
Mar 2013 38 Call Ask: 2.90
Dec 2012 42 Call Bid: 0.55
Results, By Dec:
=> Below 31 lose money up to 21, max: 6050 --> can roll put spread downwards
=> Between 31 and 38: loss: 50
=> Above 38: gain money up to 42, max: 750 --> can roll short call upwards
Evaluate weekly; if it gets half-way to the short positions, roll those out again.
Curve-fitting: goes up by 2/mo
Long Mar 2013 38 Call Ask: 2.90 x 1
Short Dec 31-21 Put credit: 0.70 x 3
Short Dec 32-22 Put credit: 0.90 x 3
Short Dec 47-42 Call credit: 0.40 x 2
Short Dec 46-41 Call credit: 0.55 x 2
Short Dec 42 Call credit: 0.55
2.10 + 0.80 - 2.90 = 0.0
2.10 + 0.55 - 2.90 = - 0.25
Mar 2013 38 Call / Sell Dec 2012 42 Call debit: -2.35
39-44 debit: -2.30
38-41 debit: -2.15
39-42 debit: -1.95
Total position:
Buy Mar 2013 38 Call / Sell Dec 2012 42 Call: -2.35 x 2
Sell Dec 2012 31-21 Put Credit: 0.70 x 3 = 2.10 x 2
Mar 2013 38 Call Ask: 2.90
Dec 2012 42 Call Bid: 0.55
Results, By Dec:
=> Below 31 lose money up to 21, max: 6050 --> can roll put spread downwards
=> Between 31 and 38: loss: 50
=> Above 38: gain money up to 42, max: 750 --> can roll short call upwards
Evaluate weekly; if it gets half-way to the short positions, roll those out again.
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